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An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck drivers. The probability of an accident are $0 \cdot 01,0 \cdot 03,0 \cdot 15$ respectively. One of the insured persons meets with an accident. What is the probability that he is a scooter driver?
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An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck drivers.
Total number of drivers
$$
=2000+4000+6000=12,000
$$
Probabiltiy of selecting a scooter driver
$$
=P\left(E_1\right)=\frac{2000}{12000}=\frac{1}{6}
$$
Probabiltiy of selecting a car driver
$$
=\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_2\right)=\frac{4000}{12000}=\frac{1}{3}
$$
Probability of selecting a truck driver
$$
=\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_3\right)=\frac{6000}{12000}=\frac{1}{2}
$$
Let $\mathrm{A}$ be the event that insured person meet with an. Accident.
Probability of accident of car drivers
$$
=\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{A} / \mathrm{E}_2\right)=0.03
$$
Probability of accident of truck drivers $=\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{A} / \mathrm{E}_3\right)=0 \cdot 15$
Probability of scooter driver who has met an accident that he is a scooter drivers $\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_1 / \mathrm{A}\right)$
$$
\begin{aligned}
&=\frac{P\left(E_1\right) P\left(A / E_1\right)}{P\left(E_1\right) P\left(A / E_1\right)+P\left(E_2\right) P\left(A / E_2\right)+P\left(E_3\right) P\left(A / E_3\right)} \\
&=\frac{\frac{1}{6} \times 0 \cdot 01}{\frac{1}{6} \times 0 \cdot 01+\frac{1}{3} \times 0 \cdot 03+\frac{1}{2} \times 0 \cdot 15}=\frac{1}{52}
\end{aligned}
$$
Total number of drivers
$$
=2000+4000+6000=12,000
$$
Probabiltiy of selecting a scooter driver
$$
=P\left(E_1\right)=\frac{2000}{12000}=\frac{1}{6}
$$
Probabiltiy of selecting a car driver
$$
=\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_2\right)=\frac{4000}{12000}=\frac{1}{3}
$$
Probability of selecting a truck driver
$$
=\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_3\right)=\frac{6000}{12000}=\frac{1}{2}
$$
Let $\mathrm{A}$ be the event that insured person meet with an. Accident.
Probability of accident of car drivers
$$
=\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{A} / \mathrm{E}_2\right)=0.03
$$
Probability of accident of truck drivers $=\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{A} / \mathrm{E}_3\right)=0 \cdot 15$
Probability of scooter driver who has met an accident that he is a scooter drivers $\mathrm{P}\left(\mathrm{E}_1 / \mathrm{A}\right)$
$$
\begin{aligned}
&=\frac{P\left(E_1\right) P\left(A / E_1\right)}{P\left(E_1\right) P\left(A / E_1\right)+P\left(E_2\right) P\left(A / E_2\right)+P\left(E_3\right) P\left(A / E_3\right)} \\
&=\frac{\frac{1}{6} \times 0 \cdot 01}{\frac{1}{6} \times 0 \cdot 01+\frac{1}{3} \times 0 \cdot 03+\frac{1}{2} \times 0 \cdot 15}=\frac{1}{52}
\end{aligned}
$$
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