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In a test an examiner either guesses or copies or knows the answer to a multiple choice question with choices. The probability that he/she makes a guess is . The probability that he/she copies the answer is . If the probability that the answer is correct, given that he/she copied it is , then the probability that he/she knows the answer to a question given that he/she correctly answered it, is
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The correct answer is:
Let be the event that the examinee gives the correct answer.
Let stand for guessing, copying and knowing. respectively.
Given,
and
Also, for if the examinee knows, he/she will correctly answer it and
since there are four choices.
Now, total probability
Now,
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