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Question: Answered & Verified by Expert
25% of the population are smokers. A smoker has 27 times more chances to develop lung cancer then a non-smoker. A person is diagnosed with lung cancer and the probability that this person is a smoker is k10.Then the value of k is _____ .
MathematicsProbabilityJEE MainJEE Main 2023 (25 Jan Shift 2)
Solution:
2774 Upvotes Verified Answer
The correct answer is: 9

Given,

In a city, 25% of the population is smoker

So, Psmoker=0.25

Pnon-smoking=0.75

And smoker has 27 times more chance of being diagnosed with lung cancer,

So, if PLung cancernon-smoker=p then PLung cancersmoker=27p,

Now,  a person is selected at random and found to be diagnosed with lung cancer,

So, total probability of having a lung cancer will be 

PLung cancer=0.25×27p+0.75×p

So the probability of him being smoker (using bayes' theorem) will be PsmokerLung cancer=0.25×27p0.25×27p+0.75×p=2730=910

Now comparing with k10=910,

Then the value of k will be 9

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